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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."